Possible political scenario in Bangladesh in the context of recent formation of so called all party government.

The opposition are now much clear after the Prime Ministers speech in the parliament. She is adamant to run the next election under her premiership. In this scenario, the opposition option for an all party election time government has faded away. Unless a dramatic turn of heart takes place, which is unlikely, the current system of government will continue until election. 18 party alliance has the option to concede a defeat to their demand for a caretaker government and join as it is, which will be political suicide, as Awamileague has no intention of giving opposition alliance a win, as they perceive a BNP win will mean ramification for Awamileague leaders that misruled Bangladesh for the last five years with an iron fists, so a thought of a defeat means a lot of their leaders maybe going to jail or be abducted and killed. It is also foolish to think that even if the Opposition is given the entire important ministry including civil administration, or what was called ministry of establishment, the election will be fair since the constitution stipulates that the Prime Minster has the final say on any decision by the ministry secretary. So for instance, if the minister for civil administration gives an order to reshuffle secretaries or appoint and promote new secretaries to ensure a fair election, the Prime Minister can over rule the decisions. One of the complain of the opposition is the politicisation of civil administration which plays an important role in the general election; which Sheikh Hasina during the last five years has blatantly politicised both the judiciary, police and civil administration that it is impossible to have a fair election under the current set up.

If we assume that the opposition will not participate in this current set up, which is in all fairness an Awamileague alliance interim government renamed as all party government, the opposition will have to go for strong agitation on the street to home in their demands. The effectiveness of this agitation mostly depends on how good they could organize an inclusive mass agitation involving various parties, civic society and the people at large in a unified movement for a common goal to establish a caretaker government. In this regard Madam Zia must take the responsibility to unite all other smaller parties for the sake of the country in a common platform. I can understand some reservation by the smaller party’s not to participate where Jamati Islam is in the team, but it is the responsibility of Begum Zia to convince them that the common issue is not about forming a government with Jamat, but the issue is about caretaker government which is a demand by 90 percent of the population. Although, the smaller party has very little men power, but they are well known figure head of Bangladesh, and their inclusiveness will appeal greatly to the secular society of the country. Dr Kamal Hussain, Bongo Vir Kader Siddique, ASM Abdur Rab, and former President Bodrudduza Chowdhury, civic society, Mahmudur Rahman Manna are national figures outside 18 party alliances that need to be participating in the Anti Government agitation. The opposition also has to be aware that once agitation starts, Awamileague government will do all possible, or even outside norms to foil opposition agitations, this could mean mass arrest of the front line leaders and killings. So planning and provision will be required to overcome those scenarios and must be willing to come out with fervour and a determination to win.

The third step for a successful crippling of the government is to involve man power from all the anti government Islamic parties including Hifazote Islam to be more vocal and have more presence in the streets. Bangladesh Islamic party’s in my estimations are not extremists, but moderate law abiding political parties and groups which are only grieved because of the government wrong actions and which affects their belief, such as removal of some provision from the constitution, persecution of Islamic figures, and allowing defamation of the Prophet Muhammad. So, any analysis that Bangladesh will head towards some Taliban like government is a misleading notion. Bangladesh main Islamic Parties believe in democracy and the vehicle of free election to gain power, and are not extremists in ideology.

The fourth step for the opposition to take is to bear more pressure on the government by lobbying international community on the unfairness of the one-sided election, and the consequences it will have in alienating the population, and breading extremism. Because unfairness and lawlessness by the state only increases the chance of youths moving away from main stream parties to joining extremist’s organization. Also the fact that instability may spill to neighbouring countries and will impact on global trade which USA is an important partner. Chinese involvement is very crucial too in this regards.

The final scenario is not desired, but it may be desired in the interest of the country, so the opposition also needs to open channel with the Army in case the government goes beyond to suppress the agitation and the Army feels the need to intervene, in that case, the Army has to play a neutral part for a limited period until institutions are set for a free fair election. Under no circumstances, the Army should do anything that previous General Moyeen U Ahmed did to the democratic process of the country. It must not play the role of putting someone in to power by helping to rig the election, as the previous Army lead government did to put Awamileague in to power with an unbelievable majority. Army’s role should be to ensure a free, fair, election, under a neutral government, helping the administration to maintain law and order.

The opposition, if comes to power, must think of the security of the country in ensuring that no future government is able to endanger our countries freedom and security by patronizing a particular countries intelligence service in our political affairs. We have seen how India openly interfered in our country by various means of money, bribe, and direct involvement with men and weapons; this is very dangerous precedence the Awamileague government has set which takes away our pride of being an independent state. Also the constitution must be changed to ensure it is a constitution for the people and not for a particular party. Most important system of the government is to ensure that the judiciary is neutral applying rules according to laws and not implementing their personal whims and political dictates. People’s last resort of receiving justice must not be politicised. So all the appointments based on political intentions must be cancelled and a balance judiciary having good, able, righteous people should be ensured.