Ice-melting or political horse trading between the big three ?

The king makers are again active in Bangladesh internal affairs, but this time all eyes and ears should remain open at their conspiracy to bring in a third force to kill democracy again. Although this very people used their influence and power to bring in the Army led Moin U Ahmed government in 2006, and then took all the economic and political promises from Sheikh Hasina in return for massive electoral victory. Under no circumstances Awamileague would have got brute majority had it not been for assistance from the army to facilitate that victory. The 3 major players that held the key to 2006 project are mainly India, The USA and the UK. But this time I think the USA and UK are more inclined towards a freer and fair election as they have seen the ruthlessness of an uncontrolled and unpredictable Sheikh Hasina in control of absolute power. India on the other hand would do everything to bring Awamileague in power and gives no damn to Bangladeshi people’s interest as long as Sheikh Hasina serves economic and political interest of India.  

I am hopeful that the great power games are realized by China, though a bit late, but its Ambassador has spoken and is aware of long term policy of other state. Therefore, though it is not desirable that foreign powers should dictate our countries political future, but it is a reality that our politicians have to live with some of their dictates for now, due to our countries dependency on USA, European Union for most of our export. Until our economy is diversified, the bitter truth is, our politician will have to listen to those powers for political settlement. In my humble opinion, in today’s world of conspiracy and infestation by foreign intelligence agents, it would be a wise idea to build a strong relationship by the BNP with our powerful neighbour China for political and economic support. China could play a balancing force for our country, in case other nation tries to take advantage of our weaknesses. We have seen what happens when 3 powers gets together to bring one party in power: As a result of foreign meddling, our countrymen experienced economic and political turmoil under this current Awami Government that had hugely impacted on the physical, mental, and spiritual health of the Nation.

Sheikh Hasina has realized she can not go it alone without approval from the USA and UK. Both ambassadors have welcomed Khalida Zia’s proposals, but out of their fear of one sided victory for the opposition, they would want to keep the option of arms twisting by not giving so much room to the BNP. This time, in spite of all indication of an opposition massive victory, if election is held, other players would want to keep a check so that certain impediments remains for our foreign powers to play our political parties one against the other.

We are worried about India’s plan and how much India has compromised our national security to the extent that it can pull strings. Dan Mozina has met with the Indian Ambassador in Bangladesh and had frantically arranged a visit to India at a time when the political arena in Bangladesh is hot. A lot will depend on Mozina’s discussions with India and how much pressure it can exert on Indian government to rein in on Sheikh Hasina to accept a non partisan interim government. Sheikh Hasina’s worries have been allayed by Begum Zia who publicly announced that a BNP government would not take revenge on Awamileague leaders for their misdeeds. This is a very important security promise which many times Dan Mozina had wanted to know about Khalida Zia’s position on this. A similar security clause was in place in 2001 election between Sheikh Hasina and Khalida. If a compromise is finally agreed, most certainly Hasina would insist on a written security clause from Begum Zia, witnessed by Ambassadors from the big 3.

It was not surprising that Sheikh Hasina had a misguided and misinformed knowledge of Begum Zia’s stand on interim government. The reason I say this, is based on a recent discussion that Jatyo party leader Hussain Muhammad Ershad had with Sheikh Hasina when the former was invited to a dinner party at Gonobhabon.

Hussain Muhammad Ershad informed Sheikh Hasina of his fear that Khaleda Zia would not accept, or participate in an election if the Prime Minister retains the top job as head of an interim government. Hearing this, Sheikh Hasina responded that she has information on the contrary that Begum Zia would participate at the end, accepting her as the head of interim government. This presumption goes against any logic, as any person having the slightest ability to reason would know that it would be politically suicidal for the opposition to participate in an election while the top job is given to the incumbent prime minister. My guess is either she is totally naïve or lacks ability to independently analyze political development. The Prime Minister of a country must not be totally dependent on advice of others rather a Prime Minister should have broad understanding of politics to decide for herself what is reasonable and what is not. Who ever have told her this information certainly had other motives in mind. There are people around her that politically and financially benefits from her ignorance and political turmoil. In these five years of Awamileague government, Indian intelligence has established very deep foothold in our political institutions, and these opportunistic voracious people are being used randomly to further their interest.

Begum Zia and the opposition must tread very carefully on proposals and counter proposals. There must be a red line that must not be compromised. A clear and decisive line should be drawn on what is reasonable and what would constitute a one-sided election time government. Our demand should be for a level plain field and that must address election commission, civil, police, and judicial politicisation issues. Without a comprehensive overhaul of administration, no free and fair election would be possible. The city election can not be an example, as we know why Awamileague did not bother to rig the poll for two reasons: One of them was to know their true popularity and the other was to entice the opposition to accept the general election under their administrations. Sheikh Hasina thought BNP and Jamat were brainless chickens that could be easily fooled. Now they are playing for time, and at the same time trying to bring a halt to the opposition agitation. Opposition strategy should be simultaneous, both dialogue but at the same time agitation must go on, siege, blockade, and non cooperation as planned must not be abandoned. Sheikh Hasina and her foreign backers will fail if the opposition can bring people on the streets, keep up the pressure and are persistent and determined. No amount of oppression and tyranny will work as long as opposition occupy the streets. Foreign players will try to pick on the weaknesses of whom ever they are not inclined to, so remaining firm on legitimate demand of the 18 party alliances is the key to success.