Post October 25th and the complexity of political solutions in Bangladesh

Bangladesh political solution is increasingly pretty much dependent on how India plays out their differences with the USA. While Bangladeshi politician plays their unequal fights in the ring, outside powers are busy writing the script in their respective embassies and political capitals. Many of you have seen how after Ershad Hasina meetings, the USA ambassador Dan Mozina had a meeting with Begum Zia, and then he met the Indian Ambassador in Dhaka, subsequently flying to New Delhi for consultation. Now we are hearing Hussain Muhammad Ershad has been schedule to visit India soon. One can not help inferring from all this that our election time government will be settled in Delhi. It also begs question whether Bangladesh has become a state of India. One can understand Hasina’s connection with India, but why should Ershad be consulting with India?  We will very soon hear about more foreign involvement when Baroness Warsi visits Bangladesh sometimes beginning of November.

If anyone failed to grasp reason behind Awamileague extending life of parliament until 7 November, it is precisely to give enough time for the big powers to decide on next election time government, so that government could change any laws that are needed for that purpose. Now the question arises, why should our politician depend on outside backers for a solution?  This is mostly due to short term hot temper and lack of ability to see consequences of their action in the future. Usually when a party comes to power, immediately before planning anything, in fact, even before publishing their manifesto, political opponent mulls over how to take revenge on the opposition. They even draft a hidden manifesto to terrorize the opposition, as if that is a mandate given by the people to take the hell out of their political opponent. So the reality kicks in once they are in power until at the end of their term, suddenly they realize about their action and begins to calculate on the consequences, once they loose power. This thought of opposition revenge fills their heart with terror; therefore, they become very reluctant to cede power, and out of fear they look for help with other foreign powers to guarantee their security and bring them in to power again. Of course, foreigners as usual, would welcome such opportunity, but nothing comes free, so strings are attached to reward them for their political, financial, and intelligence generosity. That is how a vicious cycle is developed and increasingly they become dependent on their foreign backers.

Now it is thought that India has planned scenario and possible outcome, but there are forces of nature that no one can control. So although, Awamileague had hopped to first entice the opposition in to accepting an election under status quos, and if that fails they had hoped for Hussain Muhammad Ershad to play the opposition, but to some extend this has gone out of the window, and now their only hope is to create a situation where a third force similar to 1/11 would come to power, apparently it will be a set up group from Awamileague camp, and save them from their misery. But as they say, even with the best of plans, there is always a possibility of failure. And for this reason, Sheikh Hasina has kept the door open in case her masters betray her and she has to compromise with Begum Zia. According to a source, when Hasina sees their entire plan failing, she will call Begum Zia for dinner at the Gonobhobon, and possibly will try to mitigate herself and accept a deal for free and fair election under a non partisan government.

But before then, awamileague plans to control the opposition movement by mass arrest, bullying tactics, and filing falls cases against the opposition. They may try to bribe some of the opposition leaders and activists to work for them. But I think Jamat and others have worked out all those possibilities so their tactics most probably will be limited to Hartal, rallies, non cooperation, and non compliance to pay Taxes. But all of this could change if the opposition activists become ruthless in attacking government thugs and refuses to comply with peaceful protest and go on rampage. In that case, the army may come in to take control and that may not be the one Sheikh Hasina had planned with India.

Of course, don’t forget our friend the USA is not that happy with sheikh Hasina, and neither is China. These two countries have many strings to pull if they decide to play a king maker role. But the USA would be reluctant to upset India too much due to their economic and geopolitical interest that very much depends on the partnership with India. This complication even becomes more complex once china is taken in to consideration. And above all, USA is worried that if they side too much with Sheikh Hasina against the wishes of Bangladeshi public, their reputation in the South East will be tarnished. Therefore, they are leaning towards a free and fair election.