3 days of strike is nothing more than Panta Bhat

If the government is not sincere to compromise, and If Sheikh Hasina is not sincere then she will find plenty of her party men discouraging her not to compromise. For instance, 3 days of Strike announced by Khalida Zia is dubbed as Panta Bhat (Rice soaked in water) by Awami stalwart Maya.  And he is correct, it is nothing but a flies prick, we have seen many short strikes which had very little impact on government ability to function.  Unless it is something that would severely cripple government, then it well remain as Panta Bhat as usual. The much awaited 25^th October dubbed as a ‘Day of Revolt’ passed without major incidence. That was a relief for the Awamileague who had been expecting mayhem from Shibir and BNP activists. And many were contemplating on leaving the country if things got out of hand. Pretty much like 2006, Loghi Boita War Zone. But alas! Khoka’s Machete and Axes threat was a child bluff. I doubt on his claim to be a freedom fighter, he probably only held a rifle, but never fired at his enemy, in fact it was because of him, and his reluctance to agree with Begum Zia’s announcement on 5^th of May, Dhaka BNP activists stayed away from pouring in the streets. That declaration by Khalida Zia was a real threat to unseat the government unlike the Panta Bhat, but couldn’t find anyone to join in the feast. So the opportunity was wasted, defeated and killed on the Night of 6^th May.

Now this new deadline will probably pass without major break through, because Sheikh Hasina will be embolden that no doomsday had happened as was expected, so she would want to wait and see if the opposition threat carries any weight. Meanwhile back door negotiation is continuing and it is yet to be seen if real pressure will be applied by our countries development partners. One thing is increasingly becoming clear, BNP’s activists don’t have the stomach for a fight, or not many activists may be their supporters. BNP’s student wing is very weak, and without the hot blooded young men, a forceful removal of the government will not happen. Why? Because the gentlemen like Fokhrul Islam Alomgir, and frail and old first and second line of their leaders are not made for fighting a war or a revolution. Only Elias Ali had some guts and fervour to do things daring, but his grave most probably is growing trees or it may be his burnt out ashes endlessly floating in the sea.

So when Shibir leaders say that they will show BNP how to remove Hasina, they probably want a joint operation with BNP activists led by them, but in the absence of BNP’s activist’s presence, they probably don’t want to sacrifice their activists lives for BNP to benefit without any contribution.  On the other hand, BNP’s activists are betting on Shibirs action to remove the government, because they think Jamat has to do something to save their leaders from hanging. In reality, to be effective, joint operations are needed by Shibir and Chatro Dall to bring a collapse of the government. If they are not prepared to do daring acts, and take on the Gopalish police and Awami thugs, then the alternative only solution could come from back door agreement with our foreign development partners and that may take some times.

Meanwhile Awamileague will be doing their best to wrong foot BNP through their different schemes of falls cases and arrests, and maybe entice BNP’s frail leaders with offers of riches, and position.  They may arrest more of Jamat Shibir men to stem off fuel of Begums Zia’s threat. By the time she decides to go for all out war, there may not be many activists left to carry out her declaration. Unless, Jamat Shibir and BNP are keeping men in reserve like Khaled Bin Waleed or Qaqaa Bin Tamimi, in that case, they are equal to thousand men, and they never lost a battle.
 

We are hearing Interim government head to be President Abdul Hamid according to Awamileague sources. Sheikh Hasina would not go outside elected members. She may speak with Khalida by Saturday night. If opposition accept this offer, the match will be a draw, but awamileague will win by points, and as a result, the possibility remains of vote rigging, and a win for Hasina. Begum Zia rather should commit suicide than accept an Awamileague headed interim government. In any case, the issues are more than only head of interim government. Question must be answered about civil administration politicization.

In  summary, 25^th October was no where near our expectations. It was certainly not the final, and many warm up is waiting for us before a decisive final is played. But you never know, in a football match, there is always a possibility of a draw. Usually after ninety minutes the players get exhausted and finally settle for a draw, much depending on the Goal keeper, in that case Hasina and Khaleda.

 

Post October 25th and the complexity of political solutions in Bangladesh

Bangladesh political solution is increasingly pretty much dependent on how India plays out their differences with the USA. While Bangladeshi politician plays their unequal fights in the ring, outside powers are busy writing the script in their respective embassies and political capitals. Many of you have seen how after Ershad Hasina meetings, the USA ambassador Dan Mozina had a meeting with Begum Zia, and then he met the Indian Ambassador in Dhaka, subsequently flying to New Delhi for consultation. Now we are hearing Hussain Muhammad Ershad has been schedule to visit India soon. One can not help inferring from all this that our election time government will be settled in Delhi. It also begs question whether Bangladesh has become a state of India. One can understand Hasina’s connection with India, but why should Ershad be consulting with India?  We will very soon hear about more foreign involvement when Baroness Warsi visits Bangladesh sometimes beginning of November.

If anyone failed to grasp reason behind Awamileague extending life of parliament until 7 November, it is precisely to give enough time for the big powers to decide on next election time government, so that government could change any laws that are needed for that purpose. Now the question arises, why should our politician depend on outside backers for a solution?  This is mostly due to short term hot temper and lack of ability to see consequences of their action in the future. Usually when a party comes to power, immediately before planning anything, in fact, even before publishing their manifesto, political opponent mulls over how to take revenge on the opposition. They even draft a hidden manifesto to terrorize the opposition, as if that is a mandate given by the people to take the hell out of their political opponent. So the reality kicks in once they are in power until at the end of their term, suddenly they realize about their action and begins to calculate on the consequences, once they loose power. This thought of opposition revenge fills their heart with terror; therefore, they become very reluctant to cede power, and out of fear they look for help with other foreign powers to guarantee their security and bring them in to power again. Of course, foreigners as usual, would welcome such opportunity, but nothing comes free, so strings are attached to reward them for their political, financial, and intelligence generosity. That is how a vicious cycle is developed and increasingly they become dependent on their foreign backers.

Now it is thought that India has planned scenario and possible outcome, but there are forces of nature that no one can control. So although, Awamileague had hopped to first entice the opposition in to accepting an election under status quos, and if that fails they had hoped for Hussain Muhammad Ershad to play the opposition, but to some extend this has gone out of the window, and now their only hope is to create a situation where a third force similar to 1/11 would come to power, apparently it will be a set up group from Awamileague camp, and save them from their misery. But as they say, even with the best of plans, there is always a possibility of failure. And for this reason, Sheikh Hasina has kept the door open in case her masters betray her and she has to compromise with Begum Zia. According to a source, when Hasina sees their entire plan failing, she will call Begum Zia for dinner at the Gonobhobon, and possibly will try to mitigate herself and accept a deal for free and fair election under a non partisan government.

But before then, awamileague plans to control the opposition movement by mass arrest, bullying tactics, and filing falls cases against the opposition. They may try to bribe some of the opposition leaders and activists to work for them. But I think Jamat and others have worked out all those possibilities so their tactics most probably will be limited to Hartal, rallies, non cooperation, and non compliance to pay Taxes. But all of this could change if the opposition activists become ruthless in attacking government thugs and refuses to comply with peaceful protest and go on rampage. In that case, the army may come in to take control and that may not be the one Sheikh Hasina had planned with India.

Of course, don’t forget our friend the USA is not that happy with sheikh Hasina, and neither is China. These two countries have many strings to pull if they decide to play a king maker role. But the USA would be reluctant to upset India too much due to their economic and geopolitical interest that very much depends on the partnership with India. This complication even becomes more complex once china is taken in to consideration. And above all, USA is worried that if they side too much with Sheikh Hasina against the wishes of Bangladeshi public, their reputation in the South East will be tarnished. Therefore, they are leaning towards a free and fair election.

Ice-melting or political horse trading between the big three ?

The king makers are again active in Bangladesh internal affairs, but this time all eyes and ears should remain open at their conspiracy to bring in a third force to kill democracy again. Although this very people used their influence and power to bring in the Army led Moin U Ahmed government in 2006, and then took all the economic and political promises from Sheikh Hasina in return for massive electoral victory. Under no circumstances Awamileague would have got brute majority had it not been for assistance from the army to facilitate that victory. The 3 major players that held the key to 2006 project are mainly India, The USA and the UK. But this time I think the USA and UK are more inclined towards a freer and fair election as they have seen the ruthlessness of an uncontrolled and unpredictable Sheikh Hasina in control of absolute power. India on the other hand would do everything to bring Awamileague in power and gives no damn to Bangladeshi people’s interest as long as Sheikh Hasina serves economic and political interest of India.  

I am hopeful that the great power games are realized by China, though a bit late, but its Ambassador has spoken and is aware of long term policy of other state. Therefore, though it is not desirable that foreign powers should dictate our countries political future, but it is a reality that our politicians have to live with some of their dictates for now, due to our countries dependency on USA, European Union for most of our export. Until our economy is diversified, the bitter truth is, our politician will have to listen to those powers for political settlement. In my humble opinion, in today’s world of conspiracy and infestation by foreign intelligence agents, it would be a wise idea to build a strong relationship by the BNP with our powerful neighbour China for political and economic support. China could play a balancing force for our country, in case other nation tries to take advantage of our weaknesses. We have seen what happens when 3 powers gets together to bring one party in power: As a result of foreign meddling, our countrymen experienced economic and political turmoil under this current Awami Government that had hugely impacted on the physical, mental, and spiritual health of the Nation.

Sheikh Hasina has realized she can not go it alone without approval from the USA and UK. Both ambassadors have welcomed Khalida Zia’s proposals, but out of their fear of one sided victory for the opposition, they would want to keep the option of arms twisting by not giving so much room to the BNP. This time, in spite of all indication of an opposition massive victory, if election is held, other players would want to keep a check so that certain impediments remains for our foreign powers to play our political parties one against the other.

We are worried about India’s plan and how much India has compromised our national security to the extent that it can pull strings. Dan Mozina has met with the Indian Ambassador in Bangladesh and had frantically arranged a visit to India at a time when the political arena in Bangladesh is hot. A lot will depend on Mozina’s discussions with India and how much pressure it can exert on Indian government to rein in on Sheikh Hasina to accept a non partisan interim government. Sheikh Hasina’s worries have been allayed by Begum Zia who publicly announced that a BNP government would not take revenge on Awamileague leaders for their misdeeds. This is a very important security promise which many times Dan Mozina had wanted to know about Khalida Zia’s position on this. A similar security clause was in place in 2001 election between Sheikh Hasina and Khalida. If a compromise is finally agreed, most certainly Hasina would insist on a written security clause from Begum Zia, witnessed by Ambassadors from the big 3.

It was not surprising that Sheikh Hasina had a misguided and misinformed knowledge of Begum Zia’s stand on interim government. The reason I say this, is based on a recent discussion that Jatyo party leader Hussain Muhammad Ershad had with Sheikh Hasina when the former was invited to a dinner party at Gonobhabon.

Hussain Muhammad Ershad informed Sheikh Hasina of his fear that Khaleda Zia would not accept, or participate in an election if the Prime Minister retains the top job as head of an interim government. Hearing this, Sheikh Hasina responded that she has information on the contrary that Begum Zia would participate at the end, accepting her as the head of interim government. This presumption goes against any logic, as any person having the slightest ability to reason would know that it would be politically suicidal for the opposition to participate in an election while the top job is given to the incumbent prime minister. My guess is either she is totally naïve or lacks ability to independently analyze political development. The Prime Minister of a country must not be totally dependent on advice of others rather a Prime Minister should have broad understanding of politics to decide for herself what is reasonable and what is not. Who ever have told her this information certainly had other motives in mind. There are people around her that politically and financially benefits from her ignorance and political turmoil. In these five years of Awamileague government, Indian intelligence has established very deep foothold in our political institutions, and these opportunistic voracious people are being used randomly to further their interest.

Begum Zia and the opposition must tread very carefully on proposals and counter proposals. There must be a red line that must not be compromised. A clear and decisive line should be drawn on what is reasonable and what would constitute a one-sided election time government. Our demand should be for a level plain field and that must address election commission, civil, police, and judicial politicisation issues. Without a comprehensive overhaul of administration, no free and fair election would be possible. The city election can not be an example, as we know why Awamileague did not bother to rig the poll for two reasons: One of them was to know their true popularity and the other was to entice the opposition to accept the general election under their administrations. Sheikh Hasina thought BNP and Jamat were brainless chickens that could be easily fooled. Now they are playing for time, and at the same time trying to bring a halt to the opposition agitation. Opposition strategy should be simultaneous, both dialogue but at the same time agitation must go on, siege, blockade, and non cooperation as planned must not be abandoned. Sheikh Hasina and her foreign backers will fail if the opposition can bring people on the streets, keep up the pressure and are persistent and determined. No amount of oppression and tyranny will work as long as opposition occupy the streets. Foreign players will try to pick on the weaknesses of whom ever they are not inclined to, so remaining firm on legitimate demand of the 18 party alliances is the key to success.